Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
